Weather forecast 25 FEB 2015

Race leader Cheminees Poujoulat has approached Cape Horn in fresh but not particularly frightening winds/seas. They will have a nice wind with following wind angles to turn north and start their climb north. Neutrogena and GAES Centros Auditivos have outrun a significant South Pacific low, and will have a period of moderate conditions in which to make their approach to the Cape. We Are Water and One Planet, One Ocean & Pharmaton are sailing hard up against the Ice Boundary to avoid lighter winds associated with a high pressure to their north. Renault Captur has re-entered the race in a moderate N’ly flowing around the western side of the same high pressure area. They will be faced with some difficult tactical conditions in the coming days as strong low pressure approaches from the north.

Meteo FEB 25, 2015 06:18

00Z WEDNESDAY (25-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1024mb) over the Tasman Sea near 46S/155E, with a ridge
building southeast across Auckland Island.
2) A sharp cold front passing east of NZ from 55S/179W to 47S/176E to
Wellington. A low pressure (1006mb) is developing vicinity of 49S/174E.
3) A push of strong Sílies is west of the front/low. Broad N/NW winds
east of the front/low around the western periphery of high
pressure/ridge further to the east.
4) High pressure (1023mb) is near 47S/163W, with a ridge running west of
the high along 47S to just southeast of the Chatham Islands.
5) A sub-tropical low (1002mb) has developed near 36S/170W. Not important
now but will move south as high (4) weakens and shifts east.
6) A very large and strong Southern Ocean low pressure (970mb) will be
centered near 50S/129W. A broad, cyclonic wind field around this low
with storm force winds extending out 200nm and Gale force winds 500nm
to the west and north. A cold front will wrap out of the low to
51S/122W to 44S/121W to 37S/126W.
7) Low pressure (997mb) near 49S/109W with a front extending north-
northwest to 40S/111W. A warm front extending east to 51S/98W. Fresh
to strong NW winds north of the warm front and east of the cold front.
South of the warm front, winds NE/E to a high pressure ridge along 55S.
8) High pressure (1031mb) off the Chilean coast near 46S/83W. South of
the high, fresh NW winds will spread from 95W to Cape Horn, backing SW
at Cape Horn.

00Z THURSDAY (26-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1016mb) south of NZ near 49S/175E.
2) Low (1004mb) near 47S/180W with strong Síly winds west of the low west
to 175E and south to 52S. A trough will extend southeast of the low to
54S/171W.
3) Sub-tropical low (999mb) moves south to 42S/166W. Eíly winds will
extend south of the low to 50S where a high pressure ridge will be
running west to east. N/NW winds south of the ridge to the Ice
Exclusion Boundary.
4) The ridge south of the sub-tropical low will extend east to 50S/151W,
then orth-northeast to high pressure (1022mb) near 38S/145W.
5) Strong low pressure (984mb) near 53S/121W. A secondary low (987mb)
near 50S/124W. A broad cyclonic wind field around this complex low,
with S/SW winds west to 137W and Nílies winds east to 105W.
6) Weak high (1015mb) near 54S/88W. Broad area of moderate to fresh
Wílies from south of the high at 85W to Cape Horn.
7) High pressure (1025mb) will be moving east off Argentina and north of
the Falkland Islands near 44S/58W. Mainly fresh NW/N winds from Cape
Horn to the Falkland Islands and southwest of the low center.

00Z FRIDAY (27-FEB-2015):
1) A high pressure ridge east of NZ along 175W. A low pressure and cold
front passing south and southeast of Auckland Island.
2) Low pressure (1005mb) southeast of the Chatham Islands near 45S/173W.
3) The sub-tropical low (995mb) moves to 48S/161W.
4) A large area of light and variable winds will be south/southwest of
the two aforementioned lows in a col region btween 50S and 56S and
177W and 166W.
5) A ridge of high pressure will be south of the sub-tropical low along
57S, then northeast to high pressure (1027mb) near 38S/139W.
6) The large South Pacific low (976mb) will be shifting south to near
63S/107W, but a broad trough extending north with an axis roughly
along 110W. N/NW winds east of the trough axis to 85W.
7) A ridge axis will extend north to south along 75W. East of the ridge,
SW winds will extend across Cape Horn and northeast off the southeast
coast of Argentina and across the Falkland Islands. This SW flow could
be gale force in some areas.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** WEDNESDAY (25-FEB-2015) ***
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: Variable north of 49S. Otherwise NW 15-25.
SEAS: Building 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. A few showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S 5-15 tending W 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: NW shifting S/SW 15-25 easing quickly to 10-15.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls ending from west to east.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: N/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: SW 15-25 tending W 10-15 from west to east
SEAS: 5-8m diminishing 3-5m
WEATHER: Decreasing clouds.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: SW 20-30 easing 10-20
SEAS: Decreasing 8 to 4m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers.
* 48S to 53S and 140W to 130W *
WIND: STORM FORCE W/ HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ñ S/SW 45-60 gusting 75.
SEAS: 8-13m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 130W to 120W *
WIND: STORM - North of 20S, NW/N 25-25 gusting 45 easing 20-30 shifting W
then SW building 35-45 gusting 60. Lighter south of 51S at first, but
stronger S/SW winds arrive from west.
SEAS: Building 5 to 10m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 120W to 110W *
WIND: GALES - NW 20-30 increasing 30-40 from the west.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers becoming overcast.
* 49S to 54S and 110W to 100W *
WIND: NW/N 15-25 increasing 20-35 from the west.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 50S to 55S and 100W to 90W *
WIND: NW 20-30 gusting 35.Light south of 53S.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers.
* 51S to 56S and 90W to 80W *
WIND: NW/W 20-30 Lighter south of 52S.
SEAS: Building 4-6m
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with showers.
* 52S to 57S and 80W to 70W *
WIND: W 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 52S to 57S and 70W to 60W *
WIND: W 20-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Squalls

*** THURSDAY (26-FEB-2015) ***
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: Building NW/N 25-35 gusting 45 south of 50S. North of 50S, generally
N/NW 15-25. Abrupt right shift to W/SW arriving from the west later in the
period.
SEAS: Building 3-5m south of 50S. Elsewhere 1-3m.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds, with squalls arriving from the west, especially
south of 49S.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: West of 175E, Generally N 10-20 tending NW 15-25, and gusting 30
along 170E. East of 175E, SE/S 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m south of 50S. 1-2m north of 50S.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Clouds increasing with time from the west along
with a chance of showers developing. Squalls possible north of 50S and east
of 173E.
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: E/SE 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Showers and squalls developing north of 50S.
Otherwise, just a few, widely scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: North of 52S, tending E/SE 15-25 with some gusts to 30 near 49S.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Clouds increasing from the north near 49S.
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: NW/W 10-20, except 20-25 north of 49S.
SEAS: 2-4m increasing 3-5m north of 49S.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain developing north of 50S.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: SW/W 10-20 veering NW/N
SEAS: 2-4m decreasing
WEATHER: Partly cloudy
* 48S to 53S and 140W to 130W *
WIND: SW 20-30
SEAS: 5-9m, decreasing
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 130W to 120W *
WIND: SW 20-30 gusting 35
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and strong squalls ending from west to east.
* 48S to 53S and 120W to 110W *
WIND: NW 20-30 shifting W/SW from west to east and increasing to 30-40
following shift.
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and a few squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 110W to 100W *
WIND: NW 20-35.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 50S to 55S and 100W to 90W *
WIND: NW/N 20-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers.
* 51S to 56S and 90W to 80W *
WIND: SW 5-10 tending NW/N 15-25
SEAS: Building 4-6m
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with showers.
* 52S to 57S and 80W to 70W *
WIND: SW 25-35 gusting 45
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 52S to 57S and 70W to 60W *
WIND: SW 25-35 gusting 45
SEAS: 5-8m except 2-4m north/northeast of Cape Horn.
WEATHER: Cloudy with . Squalls likely