Weather forecast 18 FEB 2015

Race leader Cheminees Poujoulat is in a full Southern Ocean gale, while the following three boats are experiencing fresh following winds from the southwest. Renault Captur will gradually fall out of these winds later today. We Are Water is slowed by a high pressure system to its north. Fortunately, fresher breezes are arriving from the west as the high weakens and shifts east. 

Meteo FEB 18, 2015 05:59

00Z WEDNESDAY (18-FEB-2015):
1) A high pressure ridge is west of Cape Leeuwin as low pressure (1013mb)
has developed over southwest Australia, moving south.
2) A deep low pressure (950mb) at 63S/119E with an associated cold front
moving in the Wílies south of Australia extending from 51S/130E to
46S/119E to 40S/104E.
3) High pressure (1024mb) is moving southeast out of the Australian Bight
to just west of Tasmania.
4) A trough lies south to north along 153E just southeast of Tasmania. A
low pressure (1017mb) may be embedded within this trough near 44S/154E.
Another low (1015mb) marks the southern end of the trough at 52S/152E.
5) High pressure (1022mb) near 48S/160E.
6) High pressure (1028mb) continues over NZ. An associated ridge axis
extends east-northeast.
7) The broad South Pacific trough will shift east to an axis along 135W.
A low (966mb) is cut-off in the trough axis near 57S/137W. A cold
front wraps out of the low and lies south to north roughly along 132W.
Strong, gale force N/NNW winds ahead of the front, shifting to strong
W/SW winds behind the front west of about 133W.

00Z THURSDAY (19-FEB-2015):
1) A trough between 120E and 125E will be moving very quickly east across
the Australian Bight. A cold front will lie from 53S/134E to 41S/122E.
2) A high pressure (125mb) will be weakening southeast of Tasmania near
46S/151E.
3) Low pressure (1018mb) moves to 45S/165E as a minor cold front brushes
southern NZ out of the Tasman Sea.
4) High pressure (1023mb) off the southeast coast of NZ near 48S/175E.
5) A Southern Ocean low will support a cold front lying from 56S/143W to
46S/160W west to the Chatham Islands.
6) A ridge of high pressure will lie west to east along 41S from 160W to
high pressure (1021mb) near 42S/137W.
7) An intense Southern Ocean low pressure (965mb) will be near 62S/124W.
Strong Gale force Wílies are expected between this low and the high
pressure ridge to the north.
>>>>>>>
00Z FRIDAY (20-FEB-2015):
1) A strong cold front will extend from about 60S/120E to 49S/116E to
43S/107E. High pressure (1019mb) will lie near 43S/135E strong NW
winds between the front and high pressure.
2) A low pressure (981mb) near 60S/153E with a cold front extending north
to just east of Tasmania.
3) High pressure (1024mb) persists across NZ to the Chatham Islands with
the Wílies pushed well south to 51S between 165E and 180W.
4) Broad flow of SWílies from 180W to 150W south of 46S to the Ice
Boundary.
5) A sub-tropical low (997mb) will move to 38S/143W. South of this low,
the Wílies will be easing. Stronger NW winds return south of 48S and
west of 134W.

00Z SATURDAY (21-FEB-2015):
1) A cold front will be moving south of Australia from 57S/137E to
49S/135E to 41S/125E.
2) High pressure (1020mb) will be centered near 46S/157E, but with light
winds extending south to 53S at 158E.
3) Low pressure (1010mb) south of NZ near 50S/167E.
4) High pressure (1029mb) east-northeast of the Chatham Islands near
42S/169W.
5) Moderate SW winds from 163W to 135W.
6) The sub-tropical low (988mb) will move to 48S/125w, with strong
cyclonic Wílies north of the low and moderate/fresh Eílies south of
the low to 52S.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** WEDNESDAY (18-FEB-2015) ***
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 20-25 gusting 30-35 shifting SW/WSW.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely, easing from west to east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30 shifting W/SW from west to east later in the day.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 15-25. Gusting 30-35 near 48S.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: Light and variable north of 45S. Tending NW 10-20 south of 45S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Tending cloud with showers south of 45S.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW increasing 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers possible.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: Light and variable north of 50S. Becoming NW 10-20 south of 50S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers. Chance of steady rain
developing.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: Variable north of 50S. Becoming W 15-25 south of 50S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: SW 20-30 gusting 35 near 54S.
SEAS: 3-6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: W/SW 25-35
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: GALES - W/SW 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: GALES - Mainly W 25-35 gusting 40, shifting SW late in period.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 140W to 130W *
WIND: STORM FORCE - NW 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 130W to 120W *
WIND: GALES ñ NW/W 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls.

*** THURSDAY (19-FEB-2015) ***
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: W tending NW 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Variable clouds with a chance of showers.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW east of 135E shifting SW tending W 20-25 gusting 30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls becoming partly cloudy with showers.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 20-30 gusting 35-40. Shifting SW from west to east late in the
period.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Tending cloud with showers south of 45S.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW increasing 25-35 gusting 40, shifting SW 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and a few squalls. Easing to partly cloudy with
scattered squalls late in the period.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: N/NW 15-25, lighter north and stronger south.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Increasing clouds from west to east with some
showers developing.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: W 10-20 south of 50S. 5-10 north of 50S.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: W/SW 20-30 gusting 35 near 54S.
SEAS: 3-6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: W/SW 25-35
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: W/SW 20-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: W 20-30
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy scattered squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 140W to 130W *
WIND: GALE FORCE - NW 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 130W to 120W *
WIND: GALE FORCE ñ NW 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: 7-10m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 120W to 110W *
WIND: GALES ñ W 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered squalls.