Weather Forecast 16-FEB-2015

Race leader Cheminees Poujoulat is riding strong winds in the
wake of a sub-Tropical low which moved into the Wílies yesterday. The pack
south of NZ is negotiating a high pressure area with lighter winds. Further
back, the Wílies remain active with a couple of weather systems, generally
support fresh winds downwind sailing conditions.

Meteo FEB 16, 2015 06:03

*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z MONDAY (16-FEB-2015):
1)    High pressure (1026mb) near 39S/85W.
2)    A ridge extends south of Cape Leeuwin to another high (1023mb) near
37S/124E. Stronger Wílies south of 41S from north of the Kerguelen to
a cold front along 49S/130E to 42S/115E to 38S/102E.
3)    A sharp frontal trough will extend from 54S/140E to the east coast of
Tasmania.
4)    High pressure (1028mb) centered just east of Dunedin, but extends west
across NZís South Island in to Tasman Sea.
5)    Sub-tropical low (993mb) near 48S/157W, with a trough extending
southeast to 53S/147W.
00Z TUESDAY (17-FEB-2015):
1)    Ridge along 38S from southwest of Australia to Tasmania. A high center
(1022mb) over the Australian Bight near 37S/130E. Another high (1020mb)
will be located just east of Tasmania.
2)    Low pressure (1009mb) near 49S/136E.
3)    A cold front will be crossing the central Tasman Sea, extending from
Auckland Island to about 42S/156E.
4)    High pressure (1028mb) will lie west to east across NZ. A weak ridge
will extend south from the high pressure along the Dateline.
5)    A very broad and high amplitude trough will be over the south Pacific
with an axis roughly along 150W, from 60S to 35S. NWílies generally
east of 150W, and SWílies generally west of 150W.
00Z WEDNESDAY (18-FEB-2015):
1)    A high pressure ridge recedes west of Cape Leeuwin, and low pressure
(1013mb) moves south off the coast near Albany.
2)    A weak front moving in the Wílies south of Australia will extend from
51S/129E to 46S/119E to 40S?104E.
3)    High pressure (1023mb) will be moving southeast out of the Australian
Bight to just west of Tasmania.
4)    A trough will lie south to north along 153E just southeast of Tasmania.
5)    High pressure (1028mb) will continue to lie across NZ, lifting north
across the North Island  more than the South. An associated ridge axis
will lie east to the vicinity of 155W.
6)    The broad South Pacific trough will shift east to an axis along 135W.
A low (969mb) will cut-off in the trough axis near 56S/136W. A cold
front will wrap out of the low and lie north to south roughly along
132W. Strong ñ gale force N/NNW winds ahead of the front, shifting to
strong W/SW winds behind the front.
00Z THURSDAY (19-FEB-2015):
1)    A trough between 120E and 125E will be moving east.
2)    A high pressur ridge will be weakening southwest of Tasmania.
3)    High pressure (1026mb) will be over the Tasman Sea, with stronger
Wílies suppressed south of 49S.
4)    Low pressure (1018mb) develops east of NZ.
5)    A cold front will lie from 56S/143W to 46S/160W to the Chatham Islands.
6)    A ridge of high pressure will lie west to east along 42S from 145W to
124W.
7)    An intense Southern Ocean low pressure (960mb) will be near 62S/122W.
Strong Gale force Wílies are expected between this low and the high
pressure ridge to the north.
**************************************
General Forecast along race route
*** MONDAY (16-FEB-2015) ***
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: W 20-25.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W 20-25.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls easing to showers.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-25 shifting W 15-25.
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: W/NW 15-25
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: GALES ñ W 25-35.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: GALES - N 25-35 gusting 40 shifting shift NW/W.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and a few strong squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: GALES - N/NW 25-35.
SEAS: 3-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: W 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: SW 25-35
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls easing to showers.
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: SW 20-30 gusting 40.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: NW 25-35.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
*** TUESDAY (17-FEB-2015) ***
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 20-30 gusing 35
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 130E *
WIND: NW 15-25
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 25-30 tending SW 10-20
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Rain and squalls easing from west to east.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: W 15-20 tending NW 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: W/NW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers. Chance of steady rain
developing.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: W 20-25
SEAS: 3-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: W/NW 20-30 gusting 35
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: SW 25-35 easing W 15-25
SEAS: 5-8m, subsiding
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls easing to showers.
* 48S to 53S and 160W to 150W *
WIND: SW 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 150W to 140W *
WIND: W 20-30 backing SW 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 48S to 53S and 140W to 130W *
WIND: STORM FORCE - NW 35-45 gusting 55.
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls.