Weather Forecast 14/02/2015

A tricky spot for Cheminées Poujoulat as winds have eased in response to a sub-tropical low moving down from the North. There will be some changing winds and upwind sailing for the next day or so before more favorable winds return. Strong winds and associated weather systems continue to impact the fleet south and southwest of Australia. Across the Tasman Sea, conditions are moderated under high pressure.

Meteo FEB 14, 2015 07:07

*** SYNOPSIS ***

00Z SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1025mb) near 36S/100E with a ridge northwest to weaker
high pressure (1022mb) near 33S/81E.
2) Deep low pressure (948mb) near 60S/83E with a strong cold front
wrapping out of the low to 58S/101E to 48S/94E to 39S/72E. Ahead of
the front, NW gales are expected extending to 105E. Behind the front,
winds shift W/SW.
3) Low pressure (998mb) developed south of Cape Leeuwin yesterday near
43S/120E, pushing strong SWíly winds north to the southwestern
Australian coast. A second low (1005mb) will be moving off the south
coast of Australia into the north-central Bight.
4) High pressure (1035mb) over the Tasman Sea near 49S/157E. Strong NE
winds will exist in the northwestern quadrant of the high to Tasmania.
A ridge will extend west of the high along 50S west to 150E. Winds
will shift NE to N across the ridge with NW winds pushed well south to
54S.
5) Another ridge extends east of the high center south of New Zealand
then up the east coast of the South Island to near Canterbury. Níly
winds east of the high/ridge across the Dateline to weakening low
pressure (1017mb) near 49S/177W.
6) A sub-tropical low (1000mb) northeast of the Chatham Islands near
39S/172W, poised to merge with the weaker low to the south.
7) High pressure (1031mb) near 43S/150W, with a ridge extending southwest
to 50S/173W.

00Z SUNDAY (15-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1025mb) moves to 42S/70E.
2) Another high pressure ridge will extend west to east along 33S from
75E to south of Cape Leeuwin. A new high center will be building
southwest of Cape Leeuwin and into the Australian Bight.
3) A cold front will extend from 52S/114E to 44S/105E to 37S/84E. NW pre-
frontal winds extend ahead of the front to 115E. Winds shift W/SW
behind the front.
4) Deep low pressure (989mb) centered near 45S/129E with a cold front
extending northeast to near Melbourne. Strong N/NNE wind ahead of the
front across Tasmania to 152E. Winds shift W/SW behind the front and
around the northern side of the low. Storm force W/SW winds within
125nm north and west of the low center.
5) High pressure (1032mb) will move south of New Zealand, centered just
north/northwest of Auckland Island, with Wílies pushed south of the
island.
6) The merged sub-tropical low (1001mb) will move south-southeast to
44S/168W. Síly winds between the high south of NZ to the sub-tropical
low. A col between the Sub-tropical low winds and the westerlies
around 52S/158W.
7) High pressure (1030mb) near 42S/140W.

00Z MONDAY (16-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1026mb) near 39S/84W will have a ridge to another high
(1023mb) near 37S/124E. Stronger Wílies south of 40S from north of the
Kerguelen Islands to 125E.
2) A sharp frontal trough will extend from 54S/140E to east of Tasmania.
3) High pressure (1029mb) extends across NZís South Island.
4) Sub-tropical low (997mb) near 48S/156W, with a trough extending
southeast.

00Z TUESDAY (17-FEB-2015):
1) Ridge along 40S from southwest of Australia to Tasmania.
2) Low pressure (1008mb) near 48S/136E.
3) High pressure (1029mb) will lie west to east across NZ.
4) A cold front will be move east across the Tasman Sea.
5) A very high amplitude trough will be over the south Pacific with an
axis roughly along 150W, from 60S to 35S.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015) ***
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: Becoming SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: NW 25-35 shifting SW 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES ñ W/NW 25-35.
SEAS: Building 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W tending NW 20-25 increasing 25-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: GALES w/ Possible STORMS - SW 30-40 gusting 45, easing from west late
in the period.
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with some strong squalls likely.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NE 20-30 shifting W building 30-45 with time.
SEAS: Building 4 to 7m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Squalls developing
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NE/N 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: North of 50S, light and variable. South of 49S, W/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers south of 51S.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: E/SE 15-30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: S/SE 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: Variable north of 52S becoming SE 10-20. South of 52S generally SW
tending S/SE 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Squalls arriving from the north.

*** SUNDAY (15-FEB-2015) ***
>>>
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W/SW 15-25 except 10-15 north of 42S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers south of 43S.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/SW 15-25 except 10-15 north of 42S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers south of 43S.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: South of 43S, W/SW 15-25. North of 43S, NW 15-20 shifting SW 10-15.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls easing to scattered showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W/NW 20-25 gusting 30. Shifting SW 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls possible. Easing from west to east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: GALES - SW 25-35 gusting 40, easing from west 15-25.
SEAS: 6-9m, subsiding 3-5m from west to east.
WEATHER: Cloudy with some strong squalls likely.
* 40S to 45S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: STORMS ñ NW 35-45 gusting 50. Becoming W/SW 30-40.
SEAS: 7-10m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain, squalls and thunderstorms possible. Easing from
west to east later in the period.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: Becoming SW 20-30.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: N 25-35 gusting 40-45.
SEAS: Increasing 3-5m possibly 5-8m west late in the period.
WEATHER: increasing clouds. Rain developing.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NE/N 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: N/NE increasing 20-30 gusting 35 from the west.
SEAS: Building 3 to 5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: E/NE 10-20.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: Light and variable 48S to 50S. Otherwise SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: S/SW 15-25. North of 50S, tending S/SE 20-30.
SEAS: 2-4m, building north of 50S.
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: SE 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Squalls arriving from the north.