Weather forecast 13 FEB 2015

The roaring 40s and 50s continue favorable for the competitors. A particularly strong trough south/southwest of Cape Leeuwin has We Are Water negotiating from storm force N/NW winds and very large seas. They will be looking to hold a slightly more N’ly route as the trough is expected to develop a very intense storm south of Australia tomorrow.

Meteo FEB 13, 2015 07:24

00Z FRIDAY (13-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (960mb) has moved to south of Kerguelen Islands with a
cold front wrapping to 54S/78E t0 46S/69E to 40S/59E. Strong NW winds
extend east to 80E ahead of (east) of the cold front at the ice
boundary. Winds shift lighter W/SW behind (west) of the front.
2) High pressure (1026mb) centered near 35S/77E, with a secondary center
(1025mb) near 39S/85E. A ridge will extend south along 90E.
3) A strong, high amplitude low pressure (982mb) near 51S/113E, with a
trough and front extending north to 35S/104E. East of the trough, gale
to near storm force NW/N winds extend to 120E. West of the trough Gale
to storm force SW winds back to 97E. Low pressure is moving southeast.
4) A col continues in place just south of Cape Leeuwin, but it is eroding
with approach from the high amplitude trough.
5) A new low is expected to form in the east-moving trough later today
near 47S/121E.
6) A ridge of high pressure extends from the col to south of Tasmania and
then to high pressure (1035mb) over the central Tasman Sea near
47S/155E. W’lies will be deflected south of 50S.
7) The front that was over the Tasman Sea yesterday developed a low
pressure (1017mb) southeast of New Zealand near 50S/176E. An area of
gale force S’ly winds will be west of this low.
8) A sub-tropical low (1005mb) is deepening northeast of NZ near 35S/172W.
This low is moving toward the S/SSW.
9) High pressure (1033mb) near 44S/155W, with a wide band of fresh W’lies
running from the dateline east, south of the high center between 47S
and 60S.

00Z SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1025mb) near 36S/100E with a ridge northwest to weaker
high pressure (1022mb) near 33S/81E.
2) Deep low pressure (948mb) near 60S/83E with a strong cold front
wrapping out of the low to 58S/101E to 48S/94E to 39S/72E. Ahead of
the front, NW gales are expected extending to 105E. Behind the front,
winds shift W/SW.
3) Low pressure (998mb) develops south of Cape Leeuwin over the previous
24 hours and will move near 45S/122E, pushing strong SW’ly winds north
to the southwestern Australian coast. A second low (1005mb) will be
moving off the south coast of Australia into the north-central Bight.
4) High pressure (1035mb) over the Tasman Sea near 49S/157E. Strong NE
winds will exist in the northwestern Quadrant of the high to Tasmania.
A ridge will extend west of the high along 50S west to 150E. Winds
will shift NE to N across the ridge with NW winds pushed well south to
54S.
5) Another ridge extends east of the high center south of New Zealand
then up the coast of the South Island to near Canterbury. N’ly winds
east of the high/ridge across the Dateline to weakening low pressure
(1018mb) near 47S/177W.
6) A sub-tropical low (1004mb) northeast of the Chatham Islands near
39S/173W, poised to merge with the weaker low to the south.
7) High pressure (1032mb) near 44S/150W.

00Z SUNDAY (15-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1026mb) moves to 42S/72E.
2) Another high pressure ridge will extend west to east along 33S from
75E to south of Cape Leeuwin. A new high center will be building south
of Cape Leeuwin and into the Australian Bight.
3) A cold front will extend from 52S/114E to 44S/105E to 37S/84E. NW pre-
frontal winds extend ahead of the front to 115E. Winds shift W/SW
behind the front.
4) Deep low pressure (984mb) centered near 45S/130E with a cold front
extending northeast to Melbourne. Strong N/NNE wind ahead of the front
across Tasmania to 152E. Winds shift W/SW behind the front and around
the northern side of the low. Storm force W/SW winds within 125nm
north and west of the low center.
5) High pressure (1032mb) will move south of New Zealand, centered just
north of Auckland Island, with W’lies pushed south of the island.
6) The merged sub-tropical low (1002mb) will move south-southeast to
44S/168W. S’ly winds between the high south of NZ to the sub-tropical
low. A col between the Sub-tropical low winds and the westerlies
around 52S/158W.

00Z MONDAY (16-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1026mb) near 39S/84W will have a ridge to another high
(1024mb) near 37S/124E. Stronger W’lies south of 4S from north of the
Kerguelen Islands to 125E.
2) Compact low pressure (992mb) moves to 49S/143E with a cold front
extending north to east of Tasmania.
3) High pressure (1029mb) extends across NZ’s South Island.
4) Sub-tropical low (997mb) near 51S/148W, with a trough extending
northwest.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** FRIDAY (13-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: W/NW 25-35 gusting 40, shifting SW 15-25 gusting 30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: NW 25-35 gusting 45. Shifting SW in the west late in the period.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with chance of squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W 15-25 veering NW 20-30.
SEAS: Building 3 to 6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Clouds and squalls approach
from the west later in the period.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES – SW 30-40 gusting 45 easing 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: Building 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GALES – N/NW 25-35 shifting SW 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: Building 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: N/NE 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls arriving from the west.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NE 20-30 tending N.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: North of 49S, N/NE 10-15. South of 49S, N becoming NW 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: North of 49S, light and variable. South of 49S, W 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers south of 51S.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: S/SE 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Squalls near NZ.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 25-35 easing 15-25 from west to east.
SEAS: 3-6m, subsiding.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers and few squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: GALES – NW 20-30 shifting S 25-35.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.

*** SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015) ***
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: Becoming SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: NW 25-35 shifting SW 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES – W/NW 25-35.
SEAS: Building 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W tending NW 20-25 increasing 25-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: GALES w/ Possible STORMS - SW 30-40 gusting 45, easing from west late
in the period.
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with some strong squalls likely.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NE 20-30 shifting W building 30-45 with time.
SEAS: Building 4 to 7m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Squalls developing
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NE/N 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: North of 50S, light and variable. South of 49S, W/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers south of 51S.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: E/SE 15-30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: S/SE 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: Variable north of 52S becoming SE 10-20. South of 52S generally SW
tending S/SE 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Squalls arriving from the north.

*** SUNDAY (15-FEB-2015) ***
>>>
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W/SW 15-25 except 10-15 north of 42S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers south of 43S.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/SW 15-25 except 10-15 north of 42S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers south of 43S.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: South of 43S, W/SW 15-25. North of 43S, NW 15-20 shifting SW 10-15.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls easing to scattered showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W/NW 20-25 gusting 30. Shifting SW 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls possible. Easing from west to east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: GALES - SW 25-35 gusting 40, easing from west 15-25.
SEAS: 6-9m, subsiding 3-5m from west to east.
WEATHER: Cloudy with some strong squalls likely.
* 40S to 45S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: STORMS – NW 35-45 gusting 50. Becoming W/SW 30-40.
SEAS: 7-10m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain, squalls and thunderstorms possible. Easing from
west to east later in the period.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: Becoming SW 20-30.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing.
* 42S to 47S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: N 25-35 gusting 40-45.
SEAS: Increasing 3-5m possibly 5-8m west late in the period.
WEATHER: increasing clouds. Rain developing.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NE/N 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: N/NE increasing 20-30 gusting 35 from the west.
SEAS: Building 3 to 5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: E/NE 10-20.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: Light and variable 48S to 50S. Otherwise SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: S/SW 15-25. North of 50S, tending S/SE 20-30.
SEAS: 2-4m, building north of 50S.
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.
* 49S to 54S and 170W to 160W *
WIND: SE 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Squalls arriving from the north.