Weather forecast 12 FEB 2015

Race leader Cheminées Poujoulat is positioned nicely ahead of a strong cold front, making a fast pace east in relatively flat water and building NW winds. The same cold front has just passed Neutrogena, giving them a strong SW wind with which to sail northeast toward New Zealand. Further back, the rest of the fleet is getting overtaken by a series of fast moving fronts.

Meteo FEB 12, 2015 07:04

*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z THURSDAY (12-FEB-2015):
1)    Low pressure (993mb) near 51S/48E. Moderate to fresh NW/N winds
northeast of the low center.
2)    High pressure (1029mb) near 35S/74E. A ridge will extend east-
northeast to 33S/90E to a col region south of Cape Leeuwin centered at
39S/117E.
3)    A second high (1023mb) will be near the Kerguelen Islands.
4)    A Southern Ocean storm low (983mb) is near 49S/90E with a large area
of gale to storm force winds north to 39S, from 75E to 95E.
5)    A cold front will be move east south of the col noted above.
6)    High pressure (1030mb) is west of Tasmania, moving east-southeast out
of the Australian Bight with W’lies deflected south of 46S at 140E.
7)    A strong cold front moves west to east across the south-central Tasman
Sea. Gale to storm force N/NW winds ahead of the front shifting SW
behind.
8)    High pressure (1029mb) will extend from west of Cook Strait to another
high (1033mb) near the Chatham Islands.
00Z FRIDAY (13-FEB-2015):
1)    Low pressure (960mb) moves to south of Kerguelen Islands with a cold
front wrapping to 54S/78E ti 46S/69E to 40S/59E. Strong NW winds
extend east to 80E ahead of (east) of the cold front. Winds shift
lighter SW behind (west) of the front.
2)    High pressure (1026mb) centered near 35S/77E, with a secondary center
(1025mb) near 38S/83E. A ridge will extend south along 89E.
3)    A high amplitude low pressure (979mb) near 49S/110E, with a trough
extending north to 38S. East of the trough, NW/N winds extend to 120E.
West of the trough Gale to storm force SW winds back to 97E. Low
pressure is moving southeast.
4)    A col continues in place just south of Cape Leeuwin, but it is eroding
with approach from the high amplitude trough.
5)    A ridge of high pressure extends from the col to south of Tasmania and
then to high pressure (1035mb) over the central Tasman Sea near
47S/155E. W’lies will be deflected south of 50S.
6)    The front that was over the Tasman Sea on Thursday, will develop a
compact low pressure (1014mb) southeast of New Zealand near 51S/177E.
An area of gale force S’ly winds will be west of this low.
00Z SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015):
1)    High pressure (1025mb) near 36S/100E with a ridge northwest to weaker
high pressure (1022mb) near 33S/81E.
2)    Deep low pressure (949mb) near 60S/81E with a strong cold front
wrapping out of the low to 58S/101E to 48S/95E to 39S/72E. Ahead of
the front, NW gales are expected extending to 105E. Behind the front,
winds shift W/SW.
3)    Low pressure (994mb) will be near 48S/122E, pushing strong SW’ly winds
north in to the western Australian Bight. A second low (1005mb) will
be moving off the south coast of Australia into the north-central
Bight.
4)    High pressure (1035mb) over the Tasman Sea near 48S/157E. Strong NE
winds will exist in the northwestern Quadrant of the high to Tasmania.
A ridge will extend west of the high along 50S west to 150E. Winds
will shift NE to N across the ridge with NW winds pushed well south to
54S.
5)    Another ridge extends east of the high center south of New Zealand
then up the coast of the South Island to near Canterbury. N’ly winds
east of the high/ridge across the Dateline to low pressure (1017mb)
near 50S/175W.
6)    The New Zealand low (1016mb) moves to 50S/177W with strong S/SW winds
between the low and high pressure over the Tasman.
7)    A sub-tropical low (1003mb) north of the Chatham Islands near 39S/173W,
poised to merge with the weaker low to the south.
00Z SUNDAY (15-FEB-2015):
1)    High pressure (1026mb) moves to 42S/72E.  
2)    Another high pressure ridge will extend west to east along 33S from
75E to south of Cape Leeuwin. A new high center will be developing
into the Australian Bight.
3)    A cold front will extend from 52S/114E to 44S/105E to 37S/84E. NW pre-
frontal winds extend ahead of the front to 120E. Winds shift W/SW
behind the front
4)    Deep low pressure (986mb) with a cold front extending northeast to
near Melbourne. Strong N’lies ahead of the front across Tasmania to
152E. Winds shift W/SW behind the front and around the northern side
of the low.
5)    High pressure (1008mb) will move south of New Zealand, centered just
east of Auckland Island, with W’lies pushed south of 51S.
6)    The merged sub-tropical low (1004mb) will move southeast to 47S/165W.
S’ly winds between the high south of NZ to the sub-tropical low.
**************************************
General Forecast along race route
*** THURSDAY (12-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: S/SW 15-20 easing 5-10 becoming W/NW 10-15.
SEAS: 3-5m subsiding from west to east.
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: GALES - S/SW 20-30 gusting 35-40 easing from west to east. Easing 5-
10 becoming W/NW 10-15.
SEAS: 6-9m subsiding from west to east.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing from west to east.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: STORMS – W/SW 40-50 gusting 60 backing SW/S. Easing in the west later
in the period.
SEAS: 6-10m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: STORMS - NW 30-40 gusting 50 backing W 35-45 gusting 55.
SEAS: Building 5-9m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain developing. Some strong squalls possible.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 15-25 increasing 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: 2-4m building 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely arrive from the west later in the period.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls south of 45S.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 20-30. Lighter NW/N 10-20 near 43S.
SEAS: 3-5m except 2m near 36S
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: W/NW 20-30. Lighter NW/N 10-15 near 46S.
SEAS: 3-5m except 2m near 46S.
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: SW/W 15-25 gusting 30 south of 51S.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: GALES - SW/S 25-35 gusting 40 easing 15-25 gusting 30.
SEAS: 4-6m subsiding 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing from west to east with time.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW 20-30 easing from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m, subsiding.
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely, easing from west to east with
time.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: GALES - NW 25-35 gusting 40 shifting SW/S 15-25.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: GALES - NW 25-35 gusting 40.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls developing.
*** FRIDAY (13-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: W/NW 25-35 gusting 40, shifting SW 15-25 gusting 30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: NW 25-35 gusting 45. Shifting SW in the west late in the period.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with chance of squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W 15-25 veering NW 20-30.
SEAS: Building 3 to 6m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Clouds and squalls approach
from the west later in the period.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES – SW 30-40 gusting 45 easing 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: Building 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GALES – N/NW 25-35 shifting SW 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: Building 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: N/NE 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls arriving from the west.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NE 20-30 tending N.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: North of 49S, N/NE 10-15. South of 49S, N becoming NW 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: North of 49S, light and variable. South of 49S, W 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers south of 51S.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: S/SE 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy. Squalls near NZ.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 25-35 easing 15-25 from west to east.
SEAS: 3-6m, subsiding.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers and few squalls.
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: GALES – NW 20-30 shifting S 25-35.
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
*** SATURDAY (14-FEB-2015) ***
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: Becoming SW 25-35.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: NW 25-35 shifting SW 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES – W/NW 25-35.
SEAS: Building 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W tending NW 20-25 increasing 25-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and strong squalls possible. Easing from west to
east.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: SW 30-40 gusting 45, easing from west late in the period.
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER:  Cloudy with some strong squalls likely.
* 45S to 50S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NE 20-30 shifting W building 30-40 with time.
SEAS: Building 4 to 7m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NE/N 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and a few squalls.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: North of 50S, light and variable. South of 49S, W/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers south of 51S.
* New Zealand Coast to 48S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: E/SE 15-30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW/W 10-20.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Variable clouds with scattered showers.
* 49S to 54S and 170E to 180E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with showers
* 49S to 54S and 180W to 170W *
WIND: S 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers likely.