Weather Forecast 11/01/2015
The Fleet leaders are entering the doldrums, but recent satellite retrievals suggest some breeze will hold right through the doldrums. So a lengthy park up is not likely, but showers and thunderstorms will cause some holes of little or no breeze.
*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z SUNDAY (11-JAN-2015):
1) Fresh NNE/NE trade winds across the Cape Verde Islands north to 25N.
Winds are more left (NNE) east of 25W and more right (NE) closer to
30W. Winds lighter toward the African coast. And light and variable
within about 60nm of the coast
2) Stronger breeze will hold west of the Cape Verde Islands, especially
west of about 27W.
3) South of the Cape Verdes, Mainly NE trade winds will be easing with
time, especially south of about 12N.
4) The northern boundary of the doldrums will extend from 8N/20W to
5N/25W to 3N/30W. This boundary is shifting slowly north.
5) The southern boundary of the doldrums marking the start of ESE/SE
trades out of the Southern Hemisphere extends from 3N/20W to 2N/25W to
6) The doldrums region of light air separating it from the SE trades will
decrease to about 4-5 deg latitude width at 20W to 3 degs latitude at
25W. The zone will of course be narrower further west, around 2 degs
latitude at 30W.
7) Shower and squall activity has been increasing across the region.
There is a zone between 25W and 26W moving slowly toward the west,
northwest. This area of showers/storms is followed by a push of SE’ly
trade wind penetrating into the doldrums from the south between 24W
8) Within the doldrums, there is expected to be some breeze, more or less
E/ESE. A complete calm zone is not forecast, though some very light
patches are still possible, especially around showers.
9) South of the doldrums, winds will be light-moderate ESE at the Equator
tending SE by 5S and slowly building with distance south. South of
there, winds will back ESE and increase to moderate strength.
00Z MONDAY (12-JAN-2015):
1) The doldrums widens and shifts north, however at least light to light-
moderate E’ly wind flow is expected to continue within the doldrums,
especially west of 25W.
2) North of the doldrums, NE trade winds of moderate strength are
expected to continue across the Cape Verde Islands. Winds mainly NNE/N
east of 25W, tending NE 25W to 30W.
3) South of the Cape Verde islands, NE trade winds will extend to the
northern Doldrums boundary, which will move to about 8N/20W - 7N/25W
4) The southern Doldrums boundary will move north to around 2N - 3N.
5) Although some E-component breeze is expected to continue in the
doldrums, an expanding area of light and variable breeze will spread
from about 20W to 24W through the day.
6) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, however coverage
may start to decrease through the day, especially along the northern
7) South of the Doldrums, winds shift ESE and build light-moderate. ESE
tending SE winds are expected by 1S, becoming Moderate around 4S.
8) Winds moderate SE tending ESE south of about 5S.
00Z TUESDAY (13-JAN-2015):
1) Light-moderate NNE/NE trades south of 15N and east of 29W.
2) Northern doldrums boundary holds around 5N-6N, though wider and
further north toward 20W. The northern boundary may become more difuse
as the day progresses.
3) The southern boundary moves north to about 1N-2N.
4) Winds are expected to hold light-moderate E’ly in the Doldrums, with
less easing than expected on the previous days. In fact, winds may
hold moderate west of about 28W.
5) South of the doldrums, a modest building trend of ESE wind to light
moderate, especially west of 25W. Moderate ESE winds will be south of
6) A broad zone of moderate ESE/E trade winds is forecast between 10S and
20S between 25W and 35W. Winds will tend to back ESE to E with
7) The South Atlantic high (1022mb)will be centered near 26S/26W.
00Z WEDNESDAY (14-JAN-2015):
1) The doldrums will be shifting south once again. The northern boundary
will be near 3N at 30W to 5N at 20W. The southern boundary will be
along about 1N.
2) Light and variable conditions east of 23-24W. Otherwise NE tending E
west of 25W.
3) South of the doldrums, light moderate ESE trade winds to 5S.
4) Moderate ESE/SE trades 5S to 10S.
5) Between 10S and 22S, mainly moderate ESE trade winds in the zone
between 25W and 35W.
6) The South Atlantic high (1022mb) will shift a little west to 26S/28W.
General Forecast along race route
*** SUNDAY (11-JAN-2015) ***
>>> TRADE WIND ZONE EAST (African coast to 20W and 15N to 20N): NE veering
NNE/N 10-15. Much lighter and variable east of 19w to the African coast.
>>> TRADE WIND ZONE WEST (20W to 30W and 15N to 20N): NNE 15 at 20W,
increasing to NE 15-20 west of 25W.
>>> CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WEST (20W to 30W and 10N to 15N): NNE 10-15 at 20W,
increasing NE 18-23 near 30W. Generally easing with time, especially south
>>> Tropical Atlantic (20W to 30W and 5N to 10N): NNE/NE 10-15. Much
lighter tending ENE/E near 5N east of 25W.
>>> DOLDRUMS (20W to 30W and Equator to 05N): South of 5N, becoming ENE/E
5-10. South of 1N/2N, becoming ESE 5-10, increasing to 8-13 at the Equator.
>>> SE trades (20W to 30W and Equator to 05S): ESE 8-13 at the equator,
becoming ESE/SE 10-15 at 5S.
SEAS: 1-2m south of Cape Verde Islands and near 1m at the doldrums.
Increasing 1-2m with distance south of the Equator.
WEATHER: Scattered showers and a few squalls south of 8N. Frequent showers
likely near the doldrums northern boundary. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms within the doldrums. An area of enhanced showers and
thunderstorms 25W/26W moving west. Some clearing/showers ending south of
1N/2N out of the doldrums zone.
*** MONDAY (12-JAN-2015) ***
>>> CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WEST (20W to 30W and 10N to 15N): N/NNE 10-15 east
of 25W. NNE/NE 15-20 west of 25W.
>>> Tropical Atlantic (20W to 30W and 05N to 10N): Generally NE 10-15 at
10N decreasing to NE/ENE 5-10 at 5N. Much lighter toward 20W.
>>> DOLDRUMS (20W to 30W and Equator to 05N): North of 02N, E 5-10. Much
lighter and variable east of 21W expanding to 24W with time. South of 02N,
ESE 7-12 increasing to 10-15 at the equator.
>>> SE Trades (20W to 30W and Equator to 05S): ESE 10-15 at the equator,
tending SE 12-16 at 05S.
>>> SE Trades (20W to 30W and 05S to 10S): SE 12-16 backing ESE with
SEAS: 1-2m in NE trade wind zone, decreasing to around 1m or less in
doldrums and 1m south of the doldrums. Seas building 1-2m south of 3S.
WEATHER: Frequent showers and squalls north of the doldrums. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the doldrums. Clearing south of about 02N.
*** TUESDAY (13-JAN-2015) ***
>>> Tropical Atlantic (20W to 30W and 05N to 10N): NNE/NE 12-16, stronger
further north and lighter (under 10) further south.
>>> DOLDRUMS (20W to 30W and Equator to 05N): Mainly ENE tending ESE with
distance south 5-10. A few areas under 5. South of 1N, tending ESE 7-12.
>>> SE Trades (20W to 30W and Equator to 05S): ESE 7-12 at the Equator,
increasing to 10-15 at 5S.
>>> SE Trades (20W to 30W and 05S to 10S): SE 10-15 at 5S tending 12-17 10S.
SEAS: 1-2m north of the doldrums, subsiding. 1m in the doldrums. Increasing
to 1-2m with distance south of the Equator.
WEATHER: Scattered showers and a few squalls north of the doldrums.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the doldrums. Clearing south of