Weather forecast 10 FEB 2015

With the ice exclusion boundary shifting south of Australia, the
leaders are heading southeast - south of 50S - staying in the strongest
winds and shortening the distance they will have to sail. Strong storms are
south of Cape Leeuwin, bringing gales and near storm force conditions along
with large seas to the middle of the fleet. At the back, weather conditions
are more benign, and in fact getting quit light for Spirit of Hungary.  

Meteo FEB 10, 2015 05:36

*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015):
1)    Tropical low pressure (1005mb) near 36S/40E. A ridge of high pressure
will be south of the low along 44-45S.
2)    A multi-centered high pressure (1031mb) is elongated along 37-39S from
60E to 100E. A ridge will extend east of the high to south of Cape
Leeuwin. New high pressure will be developing south of Australia in
the bight.
3)    Broad W’ly flow south of 40S to 130E, though a cold front will be
moving just east of the Kerguelen Islands.
4)    Low pressure (979mb) at 55S/126E. Strong NW tending W winds north of
the low, with gales north to 45S between 110E and 127E.
5)    High pressure (1035mb) moves into the Tasman Sea east of Tasmania,
with a ridge extending back west across Tasmania and Bass Strait. N/NW
winds between Tasmania to 130E.
00Z WEDNESDAY (11-FEB-2015):
1)    Low pressure (992mb) near 56S/58E with strong winds north to the
exclusion zone boundary and moderate winds north to a high pressure
along 38S.
2)    The high pressure (1030mb) will extend between 37-39S from 60E to
south of Cape Leeuwin near 120E. A new high pressure will be building
into the Australian Bight.
3)    Strong W’ly winds will be south of 40S from north of Kerguelen Islands
to south of Cape Leeuwin and then southeast around the periphery of
the high pressure building from south of Cape Leeuwin into the
Australian Bight.
4)    A cold front will be moving east toward Tasmania with NW wind ahead of
the front shifting abruptly SW behind the front.
5)    High pressure (1035mb) will be over New Zealand’s South Island.
00Z THURSDAY (12-FEB-2015):
1)    Low pressure (1005mb) moves south into the W’lies near 48S/47E.
Moderate to fresh NW winds northeast of the low center.
2)    High pressure (1029mb) centered near 36S/75E. A second high (1021mb)
will be just northwest/west of the Kerguelen Islands.
3)    A deep low (984mb) moves to near 50S/91E with a large area of gale to
storm force winds north to 40S and west to 80E.
4)    High pressure (1031mb) moves east-southeast out of the Australian
Bight with W’lies deflected south of 46S at 140E.
5)    High pressure (1029mb) move across Cook Strait. A front moves west to
east across the south-central Tasman Sea, with Gale force NW winds
ahead of it and SW winds behind.
00Z FRIDAY (13-FEB-2015):
1)    High pressure (1027mb) centered near 35S/77E, with a secondary center
(1025mb) near 39S/85E.
2)    A cold front will extend from the Kerguelin Islands to 41S/56E. NW’ly
gales east of the front will extend to 85E. Winds back SW west of the
front.
3)    A high amplitude low pressure (980mb) near 51S/112E, with a trough
extending north to 38S. East of the trough, NW/N winds extend to 145E.
West of the trough strong SW winds.
4)    High pressure (1036mb) over the central Tasman Sea near 47S/156E.
Stronger winds will remain south of 49S.
**************************************
General Forecast along race route
*** TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N/NW 10-20 increasing N/NNE 20-25 west of 55E.
SEAS: Building 1 to 3m.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers/squalls.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: W 10-20, except light and variable north of 40S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: W/NW 20-30 easing W 15-25 from west to east
SEAS: 2-4m, decreasing
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W 20-30 gusting 35. Lighter 15-20 near 40S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls possibly south of 44S.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/NW 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Mix of sun and clouds. Chance of showers.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: W 15-25. Lighter north of 42S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: SW to W 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Scattered showers.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: W/SW 20-30
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 15-25 shifting W.
SEAS: 2-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing from west to east with time.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 25-35 increasing 40. Shifting WNW/W from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: NW 20-30 increasing 25-35 west of 155E.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy squalls developing west of 155E.
*** WEDNESDAY (11-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: W/NW 15-20, except 10-15 north of 40S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: W 15-25. Gusting 30-35 south of 43S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered squalls.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Mainly cloudy with squalls possible.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: NW 25-35 gusting 40-45 backing W 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 15 at 41S increasing to 20-30 at 46S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30 south of 45S easing 10-20 at 43S.
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls south of 45S.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: SW tending W 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: SW 20-30 gusting 35-40, easing and shifting SW/W from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: NW 30-40 shifting SW/S 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and numerous squalls.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: NW 20-30 increasing 35-45.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.
*** THURSDAY (12-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: SW/W 15-20
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: S/SW 25-35 except 15-20 west of 83E.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES - SW 35-45 gusting 55
SEAS: 6-9m
WEATHER: Mainly cloudy with rain and squalls possible.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES - NW 40-50 gusting 55 backing W 25-35 gusting 45.
SEAS: Building 4-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain developing. Some strong squalls possible.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 15-20 increasing 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls south of 45S.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers.
* 46S to 51S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers.
* 47S to 52S and 150E to 160E *
WIND: W 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy with a few showers.
* 48S to 53S and 160E to 170E *
WIND: SW 25-35 gusting 40 easing with time from west to east.
SEAS: 5-8m, decreasing.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.