Weather Forecast 09/02/2015

Full-on Southern Ocean conditions continue for the top 5 boats from east of the Kerguelen Islands to south of Australia. Strongest westerlies continue just to the north of the Ice Exclusion Zone. At the back of the fleet, winds are generally lighter, but improving from the upwind conditions of the last couple days.

Meteo FEB 9, 2015 05:59

00Z MONDAY (09-FEB-2015):
1) A tropical low (997mb) south of Madagascar near 34S/43E, moving
southwest. This low is not a threat to the fleet.
2) New high pressure (1019mb) near 43S/36E, with a ridge extending east
to 45E.
3) Low pressure (1013mb) near 50S/51E moving southeast and weakening.
Fresh to strong NW/N winds in the northeast quadrant of the low
pressure up to 42S.
4) High (1032mb) centered near 41/69E. Light Wílies south of the high to
the Ice Exclusion Boundary.
5) Intense low (956mb) at 62S/119E with a cold front wrapping out of the
low to 55S/130E to 42S/117E. Very strong SW/W winds extend north of
the low and west of the front to 40S. A trough embedded within the
W/SW flow along 105E, with accelerated winds between 48S and 40S.
Winds are veered NW ahead of the trough and return W/SW west of the
trough. East of the front, winds are NW gale force.
6) A small low will develop southeast of Albany, Australia, moving
quickly southeast ahead of the approaching cold front.
7) The high (1030mb) will be moving out of the Australian Bight south of
Tasmania.

00Z TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015):
1) Tropical low pressure (1003mb) moves to near 35S/39E. A ridge of high
pressure will be south of the low along 44S.
2) A multi-centered high pressure (1031mb) will be elongated along 37-39S
from 60E to 100E. A ridge will extend east of the high to south of
Cape Leeuwin.
3) Broad Wíly flow south of 40S to 120E, though a cold front will be
moving just east of the Kerguelen Islands.
4) Low pressure (976mb) at 55S/126E. Strong NW tending W winds north of
the low, with gales north to 45S between 110E and 127E.
5) High pressure (1035mb) moves into the Tasman Sea east of Tasmania. A
ridge will extend west across Tasmania, with N/NW winds between
Tasmania to 130E.
00Z WEDNESDAY (11-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (992mb) near 56S/58E with strong winds north to the
exclusion zone boundary and moderate winds north to a high pressure
along 38S.
2) The high pressure (1030mb) will extend between 37-40S from 60E to
south of Cape Leeuwin near 120E.
3) Strong Wíly winds will be south of 40S from north of Kerguelen Islands
to south of Cape Leeuwin and then southeast around the periphery of
the high pressure building from south of Cape Leeuwin into the
Australian Bight.
4) A weak cold front will moving east toward Tasmania.

00Z THURSDAY (12-FEB-2015):
1) The former tropical low (1001mb) moves south into the Wílies near
47S/44E. Moderate to fresh NW winds northeast of the low center.
2) High pressure (1029mb) centered near 35S/76E. A second high (1021mb)
will be just northwest of the Kerguelen Islands.
3) A deep low (983mb) moves to near 50S/91E with a large area of gale to
storm force winds north to 40S and west to 80E.
4) High pressure (1031mb) moves east-southeast out of the Australian
Bight with Wílies deflected south of 45S at 140E.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** MONDAY (09-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy chance of showers.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: Variable becoming N/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Showers developing.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: SW 5-15 easing from west to east and veering W.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Chance of showers otherwise decreasing clouds.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: SW 15-25 gusting 30. Easing to 10-20 at 40S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls, ending from west to east.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES ñ W/SW 30-40 gusting 45 easing 20-30 from west to east. Light
15-25 near 41S.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls easing to scattered squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES - W 30-40 gusting 45.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GALES - NW 25-35 gusting 40 shifting W gusting 40-45.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 15-25 increasing 25-35.
SEAS: Building 4 to 6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 43S to 49S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 25-35 increasing 45.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds and squalls arriving from the west.
* 45S to 50S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 25-35 increasing 40.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.

*** TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N 10-20 increasing N/NNE 20-25 west of 55E.
SEAS: Building 1 to 3m.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers/squalls.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: W 10-20, except light and variable north of 40S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: NW 25-35 easing W/SW 15-25 from west to east
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W 20-30 gusting 35. Lighter near 40S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/NW 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Mix of sun and clouds. Chance of showers.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: W 15-25 gusting 30. Lighter north of 41S.
SEAS: Building 3 to 5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: SW to W 15-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: W 20-30
SEAS: 5-7m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 15-25 shifting W.
SEAS: 2-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely, easing from west to east with time.
* 45S to 50S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: NW 25-35 increasing 40. Shifting WNW/W from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.

*** WEDNESDAY (11-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: W/NW 15-20, except 10-15 north of 40S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: W 15-25 from west to east. Gusting 30-35 south of 43S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered squalls.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/NW 20-30
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Mainly cloudy with squalls possible.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: NW 25-35 backing W 20-25.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 15 at 41S increasing to 20-30 at 46S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30 south of 45S easing 10-20 at 43S.
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls south of 45S.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: SW tending W 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Partly to mostly cloudy.
* 45S to 50S and 140E to 150E *
WIND: SW 20-30 increasing 35. Shifting SW/W from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.