Weather Forecast 08/02/2015

Strong westerly winds are forecast continue for the boats that have made it east of the Kerguelen Islands. For those to the West, upwind conditions are still present, with high pressure to their east. Some improvement is expected to reach Spirit of Hungary today, with winds backing around to the North, allowing them to reach east along the ice exclusion boundary.

Meteo FEB 8, 2015 07:06

*** SYNOPSIS ***

00Z SUNDAY (08-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (1011mb) is developing around 46S/33E. There is a
tropical storm off the southern tip of Madagascar, but it will not be
a concern to the fleet as it weakens and turns southwest.
2) High pressure (1034mb) near 45S/61E, increasing in strength and
amplitude with time. A very broad area of anti-cyclonic flow extending
west of the high to 40E (NE winds) and east of the high (SW winds).
3) There is strong SWíly flow from the Kerguelen Island extending
northeast and east around the northwestern periphery of deep low
pressure (955mb) near 55S/103E. Storm force winds north of the low to
48S and gale force winds to 44S. A cold front wrapping out of the low
to 53S/112E to 40S/100E. Strong NW winds to gale and possibly storm
force ahead of the front to 115E at 45S.
4) High pressure (1027mb) is over the Australian Bight near 42S/127E.
Wílies are deflected to south of 43S south of the high center, with
strongest winds south of 47S. A modest ridge will extend south along
128E south of the high pressure.

00Z MONDAY (09-FEB-2015):
1) A tropical low (995mb) moves south of Madagascar near 33S/43E, moving
southwest.
2) New high pressure (1019mb) near 42S/36e, with a ridge extending east
to 44E.
3) Low pressure (1012mb) near 49S/51E moving southeast and weakening.
Fresh to strong NW/N winds in the northeast quadrant of the low
pressure up to 43S.
4) High (1033mb) centered near 41/69E, but with light winds extending
south to the ice exclusion zone boundary.
5) Intense low (954mb) at 62S/119E with a cold front wrapping out of the
low to 55S/130E to 42S/117E. Very strong SW/W winds extend north of
the low and west of the front to 40S. A trough embedded withing the
W/SW flow along 102W, with accelerated between 49S and 41S. Winds are
veered NW ahead of the trough and return W/SW west of the trough.
East of the front, winds are NW gale force.
6) A small low will develop southeast of Albany, Australia, moving
quickly southeast ahead of the approaching cold front.
7) The high (1031mb) will be moving out of the Australian Bight south of
Tasmania.

00Z TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015):
1) Tropical low pressure (1000mb) moves to near 35S/39E. A ridge of high
pressure will be south of the low along 44S.
2) A multi-centered high pressure will be elongated along 39S from 60E to
95E. A ridge will extend east of the high to south of Cape Leeuwin.
3) Broad Wíly flow south of 42S to 120E, though a cold front will be
cross the Kerguelen Islands.
4) Low pressure (959mb) at 62S/120E. A cold front wraps out of the low to
57S/135E to 43S/121E. NW winds east of the front shifting to NW to W
west of the front to 120E.
00Z WEDNESDAY (11-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (986mb) near 56S/61E with strong winds north to the
exclusion zone boundary and moderate winds north to a high pressure
along 38S.
2) The high pressure will extend from 60E to a high center (1020mb) south
of Cape Leeuwin.
3) Strong Wíly winds will be south of 40S from north of Kerguelen Islands
to south of Cape Leeuwin and then southeast around the periphery of
the high pressure building from south of Cape Leeuwin into the
Australian Bight.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** SUNDAY (08-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 40E to 50E *
WIND: S/SW 5-15 west of 45E. N/NE 15-20 east of 45E.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Variable clouds chance of showers, mainly east of 45E.
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N/NE 15-25.
SEAS: 1-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy chance of showers.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: E tending NE 10-15 north of 41S. Variable becoming N 5-15 south of
41S.
SEAS: 1-2m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: SW 15-25 easing 5-15 from west to east.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Chance of showers otherwise decreasing clouds.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: GALES - W/SW 25-35 gusting 40 south of 44S. Easing to 15-25 at 40S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls, ending from west to east.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES ñ W/SW 30-40 gusting 45 easing 25-35 from west to east.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls easing to scattered squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES ñ NW 30-40 gusting 50 shifting W from the west later in the
period.
SEAS: Building 4 to 8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls arriving from the west.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GALES - NW 25-35 shifting W 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: N/NW building 25-35 gusting 45, shifting to W 20-30 gusting 40 from
west to east late in the period.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with frequent showers and a few squalls.

*** MONDAY (09-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 40E to 50E *
WIND: NE/E 20-30 north of 40S. Variable south of 40S.
SEAS: 3-5m north of 40S, 1-3m south of 40S.
WEATHER: Rain and squalls north of 40S, otherwise cloudy.
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy chance of showers.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: Variable becoming N/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Showers developing.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: SW 5-15 easing from west to east.
SEAS: 2-3m
WEATHER: Chance of showers otherwise decreasing clouds.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: SW 15-25 gusting 30. Easing to 10-20 at 40S.
SEAS: 3-5m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls, ending from west to east.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES ñ W/SW 30-40 gusting 45 easing 20-30 from west to east.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls easing to scattered squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES - W 25-35 gusting 40-45.
SEAS: Building 4 to 8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls arriving from the west.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GALES - NW 25-35 gusting 40 shifting W gusting 40-45.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW 20-30 increasing 30-40.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW 25-35 increasing 40.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.

*** TUESDAY (10-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: W/NW 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: W 10-20, except light and variable north of 40S.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Showers developing.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: NW 25-35 easing W/SW 15-25 from west to east
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: W 20-30 gusting 35. Lighter near 40S.
SEAS: 4-6m.
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W/NW 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Mix of sun and clouds. Chance of showers.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: W 15-25 gusting 30. Lighter north of 41S.
SEAS: Building 3 to 5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: SW/W 20-30 gusting 35.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: W/NW 20-30
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain easing to scattered squalls from west to east.
* 43S to 48S and 130E to 140E *
WIND: NW15-25
SEAS: 2-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with scattered squalls.