Weather Forecast 06-feb-2015

Within the next couple days, the leaders will sail south of Australia, where the Ice Exclusion Zone shifts south. This increase in available ocean space will likely be quite welcome since high pressure is expected to develop over the Australian Bight, restricting the westerlies to higher latitudes, but within range given the new ice limits. Meanwhile, at the back of the fleet, Spirit of Hungary is likely to experience an extended period of heavy weather upwind sailing in very rough seas. The same weather system bringing this, may also catch up to One Plant, One Ocean in the next day or so.

Meteo FEB 6, 2015 07:07

***

00Z FRIDAY (06-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1023mb) near 46S/30E.
2) Low pressure (1006mb) near 37S/28E. A fresh E/SE flow between the high
pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.
3) Low pressure (994mb) at 46S/63E. Strong S’ly winds west of the low and
gale force NW/N east/northeast of the low.
4) High pressure (1027mb) centered near 32N/89E, with a ridge extending
west along 33S to 70E. Another ridge extends southeast of the high to
south of Cape Leeuwin near 40S/120E.
5) A ridge of high pressure with some lighter winds has an axis from
41S/86E to 50S/72E.
6) Low pressure (973mb) near 62S/100E. A cold front will wrap out of the
low pressure to 51S/120E then 42S/110E to 41S/103E. The W’ly flow west
of the front extends west to about 85E, south of 39S. Fresh to strong
NW winds east of the front.

00Z SATURDAY (07-FEB-2015):
1) High pressure (1030mb) centered near 46S/50E, expanding in coverage
with light winds south of 43S.
2) Low pressure (1005mb) moves to 40S/31S. A fresh to strong NE/E flow
between the high pressure to the southeast and this low. Winds
strongest closer to the low northwest of 43S/40E.
3) A storm low (970mb) moves to 50S/86E, with a cold front extending from
46S/87E to 40S/75E to 36S/61E. Strong (gale to possibly storm force)
NW wind east of the front to 94E, shifting gale force SW wind west of
the front back to 65E.
4) High pressure (1026mb) centered near 35S/96E. A broad expansion of
light winds out of the high west to 32S/60E and east to 40S/110E. An
extension of this ridge is south of Cape Leeuwin into the Australian
Bight, where a new high will develop. This keeps W’lies confined
mainly south of 40S south of Australia.

00Z SUNDAY (08-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (1017mb) moves to 37S/32E. a second low (1011mb) will be
developing around 46S/34E.
2) High pressure (1034mb) moves to near 45S/60E, increasing in amplitude
with time. A very broad area of anti-cyclonic flow extending west of
the high to 40E (with N’ly component winds) and east of the high (with
S’ly component wind).
3) Deep low pressure (954mb) near 55S/102E with storm force winds north
of the low to 46S and gale force winds to 44S. A cold front wrapping
out of the low to 53S/111E to 43S/103E to 34S/86E. Strong NW winds to
gale and possibly storm force ahead of the front to 115E at 45S. Gale
force W tending SW winds behind the front.
4) High pressure (1026mb) moves into the Australian Bight near 42S/128E.
W’lies will be deflected to south of 43S south of the high center with
strongest winds south of 47S. A modest ridge will extend south along
128E south of the high pressure.

00Z MONDAY (09-FEB-2015):
1) Low pressure (1002mb) near 46S/24E.
2) A low (992mb) with some tropical origin south of Madagascar near
32S/43E, moving southwest.
3) New high pressure (1020mb) near 42S/39e. Stronger, high amplitude high
(1033mb) centered near 42?68E, but with light winds extending south to
the ice exclusion zone.
4) Intense low (963mb) moves to 62S/116E with a cold front extending nrth
along 115E.
5) A trough or secondary cold front may be northwest of the low vicinity
of 100E at 45S, bringing storm force W/SW winds just north of the ice
exclusion zone.
6) A small low will develop southeast of Albany, Australia, moving
quickly southeast.
7) The high in the Australian bight will be moving east toward Tasmania.

**************************************
General Forecast along race route

*** FRIDAY (06-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 30E to 40E *
WIND: GALES – NE shifting E building 25-35 gusting 45.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls likely.
* 38S to 43S and 40E to 50E *
WIND: E 20-30 gusting 30-35.
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and squalls
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: SE becoming E 15-25.
SEAS: 2-4m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: GALES - NW 30-40 gusting 45 shifting S/SE 15-25 gusting 30 from west
to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy. Rain and squalls likely. Some strong squalls possible.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: Building NW 25-35 gusting 40-45. Shifting SW from west to east latter
half of the period.
SEAS: 3-5m, building
WEATHER: Cloudy. Rain and squalls likely. Some strong squalls possible.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: Tending NW 15-25 increasing 25-35.
SEAS: Building 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with some squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: W 10-20 tending NW 20-30.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with some showers.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: W/WSW 20-30 easing 10-20 veering W/NW.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy tending partly cloudy.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: NW 25-35 shifting W/SW 20-30.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.

*** SATURDAY (07-FEB-2015) ***
* 39S to 44S and 30E to 40E *
WIND: GALES – NE 25-35 gusting 40 tending NW/W easing 15-25 with time.
SEAS: 3-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and some squalls likely.
* 38S to 43S and 40E to 50E *
WIND: E/NE 15-25 gusting 30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with showers and squalls
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: Becoming E/NE 15-25.
SEAS: 2-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: S/SE 15-20 backing SE/E and possibly NE.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND: S/SW 15-25 tending SE.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Chance of showers otherwise decreasing clouds.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: NW 25-35 shifting SW 20-30.
SEAS: Building 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with frequent squalls likely.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES – NW 30-40 shifting SW 25-35 from west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls easing to scattered squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: Building NW 15-25 increasing 25-35. Late change to W/SW 20-30 gusting
35 arriving from the west.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls arriving from the west.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: W 10-20 veering NW 20-30.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: Light near 43S increasing with distance south from 5-15 to 20-30 near
48S.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy and fine weather. Some showers/squalls arrive from
the west later in the day.

*** SUNDAY (08-FEB-2015) ***
* 38S to 43S and 40E to 50E *
WIND: NE/N easing 10-15. Becoming light and variable west of 42E.
SEAS: 2-4m
WEATHER: Variable clouds chance of showers, ending.
* 38S to 43S and 50E to 60E *
WIND: N/NE 10-20.
SEAS: 1-3m.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 60E to 70E *
WIND: Variable becoming N 5-15.
SEAS: 1-2m
WEATHER: Partly cloudy.
* 39S to 44S and 70E to 80E *
WIND:SW 15-25 easing 5-15 from west to east.
SEAS: 1-3m
WEATHER: Chance of showers otherwise decreasing clouds.
* 40S to 45S and 80E to 90E *
WIND: SW 20-30 easing 10-20
SEAS: Subsiding 2-4m
WEATHER: Cloudy with squalls ending.
* 41S to 46S and 90E to 100E *
WIND: GALES – W/SW 30-40 easing 25-35m west to east.
SEAS: 5-8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls easing to scattered squalls.
* 41S to 46S and 100E to 110E *
WIND: GALES - W 30-40 gusting 50.
SEAS: Building 4 to 8m
WEATHER: Cloudy with rain and squalls arriving from the west.
* 41S to 46S and 110E to 120E *
WIND: GLAES - NW 20-25 shifting W increasing 25-35.
SEAS: 3-5m
WEATHER: Squalls likely.
* 43S to 48S and 120E to 130E *
WIND: NW building 25-35 gusting 45, shifting to W 20-30 gusting 40 from
west to east.
SEAS: 4-6m
WEATHER: Cloudy with frequent showers and a few squalls.