Weather Forecast 05/01/2015
Winds are still light and variable between Gibraltar and about 32N. But during today, high pressure building north of Madeira will fill N ly winds west of 10W, connecting with existing trade winds already developed north of the Canary Islands.
*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z MONDAY (05-JAN-2015):
1) A minor low pressure (1030mb) is over the western Gulf of Cadiz near 35N/9W.
2) S ly winds extend north from the Moroccan coast into the eastern Gulf of Cadiz.
3) A dual center high pressure is of western Iberia and north of Madeira. One high center (1033mb) is position near 40N/13W and a second (1032mb) near 36N/16W.
4) Light N lies are developing between the high and the low pressure. These may become moderate N/NE winds south of 35N and east of 14W by later today. This new wind field will connect south of 32N into stronger winds down to the Canary Islands.
5) A broad zone of fresh E lies south of about 31N extends from the African coast, across the Canary Islands to 20W. Winds in the zone will moderate somewhat while backing more ENE/NE today.
6) South of the Canary Island and well west, the true E/ENE trade winds are well established at moderate to fresh speeds, and will be backing more ENE/NE with time.
00Z TUESDAY (06-JAN-2015):
1) The Gulf of Cadiz low will dissipate and N/NNW winds will slowly fill across the Gulf of Cadiz and into the northern Moroccan coast.
2) High pressure consolidates north of Madeira (1031mb) near 34N/16W. A ridge will extend to the southwest and another northeast to near Vigo, Spain.
3) Moderate N lies at 35N east of the high pressure will extend south to 32W. South of 32W, the moderate winds will veer more NNE/NE and then NE/ENE across the Canary Island even further south.
4) The zone of E/ENE winds across the Canary Islands will back to the NE/ENE through the day. Accelerated flow will develop in and downwind of the channel between Gran Canary and Tenerife.
5) South of the Canary Islands (and especially south of 27N, NE trade winds will be strengthening, becoming quite fresh extending out of the African coast and well west toward the Central Atlantic. Note that winds will be lighter closer to Africa, but fresh to strong west of about 17W.
6) A North Atlantic cold front extending from Ireland southwest to about halfway between the Azores and Madeira will be slowing. In progress east and south. The high pressure north of Madeira will shift west through the day and weaken/elongate the front more west to east north of 36W.
00Z WEDNESDAY (07-JAN-2015):
1) The high will weaken (1030mb) and move west to 33N/21W. A ridge will elongate from the high center east-northeast to southwest Portugal.
2) The cold front will move to a line from near Porto, Portugal, to about 34N/24W.
3) A high pressure (1033mb) will be north of the front over the eastern Azores and becoming nearly stationary.
4) NE trades will expand and strengthen between Madeira and the Canary Island and across to the African Coast. Trades are expected to become fresh to strong outside of the wake effects induced downwind of the Canary Islands.
5) South of the Canary Island, strong ENE/NE trades will extend from the African coast well west into the Atlantic.
6) The acceleration zones will be active between the Canary Islands.
00Z THURSDAY (08-JAN-2015):
1) The high pressure northwest and north of Madeira weakens. Fresh to strong trade winds develop east and southeast of Madeira to the African coast and across the Canary Islands.
2) The trade wind zone looks like it will be wide and strong, extending south beyond the Cape Verde Islands and well west to 35W.
General Forecast along race route
*** MONDAY (05-JAN-2015) ***
>>> ALBORAN SEA: SW/W 7-12 in the morning, easing and becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Local coastal sea breezes develop on both the Spanish and Moroccan shores after noon.
>>> GIBRALTAR: W 10-15, easing in the afternoon to 3-8.
>>> GULF OF CADIZ (North of 35N and East of 10W): S 5-10 east of 7W, becoming E 5-10 west of 7W. Lighter close to Gibraltar. Winds becoming light and variable across the Gulf by later afternoon/evening, with N lies 5-10 developing near 10W and starting to spread east.
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): SE/S near the coast 5-15, stronger near the coast and lighter with distance offshore. Light and variable near 10W. Becoming light and variable through the day all areas north of 32N. South of 32N, tending N/NE 5-15, stronger with distance south.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and north of 30N): N 5-10 tending 10-15 north of 33N and NE south of 33N.
>>> CANARY ISLANDS (African coast to 20W and 25N to 30N): E/ESE 20-25 rapidly easing mid-day and tending E/ENE 10-15 later in the day. Lighter downwind (west) of the Canary Islands. Becoming NE 15-20 south of the Islands.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (20W to 25W and 25N to 30N): Light downwind (west/northwest) of the Canary Islands mainly north of about 28N. Otherwise, E 13-18 tending NE.
SEAS: Generally 1m or less close to African coast. Elsewhere, 1-2m. Roughest north of 35N and south of 28N.
WEATHER: Mainly fine conditions elsewhere with no significant areas of showers or rain.
*** TUESDAY (06-JAN-2015) ***
>>> GIBRALTAR: Light and variable becoming W 10-15.
>>> GULF OF CADIZ (North of 35N and East of 10W): N 5-10 building 10-15 late in the day. West of 7W, becoming N/NNW 15-20.
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): Light and variable except N 5-10 at 10W. A NW sea breeze developing on the coast in the afternoon will pull NW/N winds across the area 10-15 in the later afternoon/evening. Tending N/NE south of 33N.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and north of 30N): N/NE 10-15 tending 15-20, except lighter waters northeast of Madeira.
>>> CANARY ISLANDS (African coast to 20W and 25N to 30N): ENE 15 tending ENE/NE 15-20. Becoming stronger from the African coast west to 19W and waters south of Canary Islands where 20-25 develops (except where leeside wakes are present downwind of the islands).
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (20W to 25W and 25N to 30N): ENE/NE 14-18 increasing 17-22.
SEAS: Generally 1m or less close to African coast. Elsewhere, 1-2m.
WEATHER: Fine conditions with no significant areas of showers or rain. There may be some showers approaching from the northwest over waters north of Madeira.
*** WEDNESDAY (07-JAN-2015) ***
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): NNE/NE 10-15, increasing with distance south and west.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and north of 30N): NNE/NE increasing 15-20, except lighter north of 33N and very light north/northeast of Madeira. Wind generally increasing with distance south toward 30N
>>> CANARY ISLANDS (African coast to 20W and 25N to 30N): Generally increasing NE from 15-20 to 20-25. Stronger south of the Canary Islands. Accelerated flow between the islands.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (20W to 25W and 25N to 30N): NE/ENE 18-23 increasing 20-25.
SEAS: 1m north of 32N. 1-2m 32N to Canary Islands. 2-3m south and west of Canary Islands.
WEATHER: Some showers possible around Madeira and the Canary Islands. Otherwise fine weather with no organized areas of showers or rain.