Weather Forecast 04/01/2015
The moderate E'ly flow out of Gibraltar and across the Gulf of Cadiz is easing and forecast to become light and variable today. A new high pressure which will develop north of Madeira later today and tomorrow will slowly reestablish N/NE trade winds north of the Canary Islands.
*** SYNOPSIS ***
00Z SUNDAY (04-JAN-2015):
1) High pressure (1038mb is centered off the northwest Spanish coast near 42N/12W.
2) A trough of low pressure is along the Moroccan coast, moving slowly west/northwest and weakening.
3) E/ENE flow downwind of Gibraltar and across the Gulf of Cadiz is easing and backing ENE/NE as the trough weakens.
4) This E/ENE flow will be easing through the day as the trough lifts northwest and eases. A light Síly flow will spread north along the
Moroccan coast to cross the western approaches of Gibraltar later today.
5) The high is developing a ridge south along 15W. West of the developing ridge axis at about 15W, there E flow veering SE.
6) Further south, there is an E/SE flow out of northern Africa and across the Canary Island and over waters south of Madeira. Winds in this flow
are moderate to fresh, covering a large area south of 31N down to 23N. The exception is areas northeast of Lanzarote where the trough is keeping winds much lighter.
7) This E/SE flow will start to ease very quickly later today.
00Z MONDAY (05-JAN-2015):
1) A very weak trough of low pressure northeast of Lanzarote will dissipate through the day.
2) A col region over the Gulf of Cadiz will fill with very light W tending NW winds.
3) High pressure (1031mb) will move to north of Madeira near 35N/17W.
4) Light Nílies are developing between the high and the trough. These may become moderate NEílies south of 33N and east of 14W by later Monday.
5) The E/SE flow across the Canary Island will be easing and backing E to/ENE.
6) South of the Canary Island and well west, the true NEíly trade winds will be well established at moderate to fresh speeds.
00Z TUESDAY (06-JAN-2015):
1) The Trade winds reestablish north of the Canary Islands, connecting with established NE winds south of the Cnaray Islands.
2) High pressure (1031mb) will be north of Madeira near 35N/15W.
3) The weak coastal trough that was off Morocco will shift inland and dissipate and N/NE winds will be building between the high pressure center and Moroccan coast.
4) The zone of E winds across the Canary Islands will back to the NE/ENE through the day.
5) A North Atlantic cold front extending from Ireland southwest to about halfway between the Azores and Madeira will be slowing and gets further south and east at 33N-34N. The high pressure north of Madeira will weaken and shift east as the front approaches.
00Z WEDNESDAY (07-JAN-2015):
1) The high will elongate into a weak ridge from southern Portugal to just north of Madeira.
2) The cold front will move to a line from just north of Lisbon on the Portuguese coast to about 33N/20W. The front will slowly weaken through the day.
3) A high pressure (1034mb) will be north of the front over the eastern Azores and becoming nearly stationary.
4) NE trades will expand and strength between Madeira and the Canary Island. Trades are expected to become fresh to strong outside of the wake effects induced downwind of the Canary Islands.
General Forecast along race route
*** SUNDAY (04-JAN-2015) ***
>>> ALBORAN SEA: SE/S 5-10 becoming light and variable. Local coastal sea breezes develop on the both the Spanish and Moroccan shores.
>>> GIBRALTAR: E 15-20 early morning, easing quickly through the morning. A period of light and variable mid-day/early afternoon then possibly becoming
SW/W 3-8 in the afternoon/evening.
>>> GULF OF CADIZ (North of 35N and East of 10W): In the early morning, continued NE/ENE accelerated flow downwind of Gibraltar up to 20 knots close to the strait easing to 15 with distance west. However, all this flow rapidly easing morning and a SE tending S breeze 3-8 filling off the
Moroccan coast into the Gulf before becoming light and variable in the evening.
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): Becoming light and
variable before a S/SW fill 5-10 afternoon through evening north of 33N. Light and variable winds hold south of 33N. A late fill of NW 3-8 from 10W to near the coast.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and North of 30N): E/ENE 10-15 and locally 15+. Rapidly easing late morning through early afternoon and backing NE to N less than 5. A general N/NW flow develops across much of the area 5-10 after sunset.
SEAS: 1-2m downwind of Gibraltar subsiding. Elsewhere generally 1m or less.
WEATHER: Mainly fine. No areas of significant showers or rain.
*** MONDAY (05-JAN-2015) ***
>>> ALBORAN SEA: Light and variable becoming E 5-10 over the eastern two-thirds. Local coastal sea breezes develop on both the Spanish and Moroccan shores after noon.
>>> GIBRALTAR: Light and variable.
>>> GULF OF CADIZ (North of 35N and East of 10W): S 5-10 becoming NW 10-15 near 10W decreasing W 5-10 7W. Lighter close to Gibraltar. Wíly slowly filling across Gulf from west to east later in the day.
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): Light and variable
becoming NW 10-15 near 10W decreasing NW/W 5-10 near the Moroccan coast by 18Z.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and north of 30N): N/NE 5-10 tending NW/N 10-15 north of 32N and N/NE south.
>>> CANARY ISLANDS (African coast to 20W and 25N to 30N): SE 20-25 rapidly easing mid-day and tending E/NE 10-15 later in theday. Lighter downwind
(west) of the Canary Islands.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (20W to 25W and 25N to 30N): Light downwind (west/northwest) of the Canary Islands mainly north of about 28N. Otherwise,
E 13-18 tending NE.
SEAS: Generally 1m or less close to African coast. Elsewhere, 1-2m. Roughest north of 35N and south of 28S.
WEATHER: Clouds decreasing around Gibraltar. Fine conditions elsewhere with no significant areas of showers or rain.
*** TUESDAY (06-JAN-2015) ***
>>> GIBRALTAR: Light and variable becoming W 5-15.
>>> GULF OF CADIZ (North of 35N and East of 10W): N 5-10 building 10-15 late in the day.
>>> MOROCCAN COAST (30N to 35N and East of 10W): Light and variable except N 5-10 at 10W. A NW sea breeze developing on the coast in the afternoon will pull NW/N winds across the area 10-15 in the later afternoon/evening. Tending N/NE south of 33N.
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (10W to 15W and north of 30N): N/NE 10-15 tending 15-20, except lighter waters northeast of Madeira.
>>> CANARY ISLANDS (African coast to 20W and 25N to 30N): ENE 15 tending ENE/NE 15-20. Becoming stronger from the African coast west to 19W waters south of Canary Islands (except where leeside wakes are present downwind of the islands).
>>> OPEN ATLANTIC (20W to 25W and 25N to 30N): ENE/NE 14-18.
SEAS: Generally 1m or less close to African coast. Elsewhere, 1-2m.
WEATHER: Fine conditions elsewhere with no significant areas of showers or rain. There may be some southwest approaching from the NW waters northwest and north of Madeira.