Meteo

Sailing Weather Forecast 28.02

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Sailing Weather Forecast
Barcelona World Race
Issued 0300Z 28-FEB-2011

Synopsis: The race leaders are on the western side of a massive trough of low pressure that extends from Cape Horn all the way back to 120W. They are in the SW'ly Gales blowing around the western side of this trough which is expected to move east to about 85W by tomorrow. A small, but potent, low pressure is in the trough this morning near 47S/99W (978mb). This low deepens quickly in the next 24 hours while moving southeast to 56S/84W (963mb) by tomorrow. Another reinforcement of cold, antarctic air moves north along 120W to 50S by this time tomorrow. This keeps strong W'ly winds blowing along 120W to about 90W through tomorrow.

The blocking high that has been along 140W is finally weakening while moving northeast. This is allowing the remains of Cyclone ATU near 56S/160W (989mb) to start moving more east. Meanwhile, a secondary low pressure near 44S/159W (1001mb) is moving quickly south-southeast and will be absorbed into the circulation around ex-ATU later today. The remains of ATU will combine with cold air out of Antarctica to rapidly deepen a low pressure from late Tuesday and Wednesday in the south-central Pacific. At 00Z on Wednesday, a 960mb low will be at 57S/125W, with storm force winds within 150nm of the center and Gale Force W'ly winds extending all the way north to near 45S. This strong low then moves quickly east keeping very strong W'lies going between 55S and 45S between 140W and 90W through Thursday.

High pressure is moving northeast of New Zealand today and will move progressively east over the next couple of days. Tomorrow, the high will be near 44S/170W (1025mb) then to 46S/162W (1030mb) on Wednesday. As this high shifts east, a very strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move into the Tasman Sea from late today into Tuesday. Low pressure will develop east of Tasmania later today, then move to south of New Zealand on Wednesday. A building NW flow across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand on Tuesday will shift to a W'ly Gale on Wednesday.

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General Forecast along the race route:

*** MONDAY (28-FEB-2011) ***
* 40S to 50S from 140E to 160E *
WIND: South of 45S, W/SW 10-20 near 45S, increasing to 20-30 near 50S. North of 45S, NNW at 15-20, shifting to SW from the west to east late in the period.
SEAS: 1-2m north of 45S, increasing to 2-3m late. 3-4m south of 45S.
WEATHER: Squalls mainly west of 150E.
* 40S to 50S from 160E to 180E, including Cook Strait *
WIND: Variable winds off the Marlboro Sound. South of 45S, NW at 15-25. North of 44S, N/NE at 10-20 increasing to 20-30 northern sections.
Cook Strait, moderate NW/N 20, increasing to 30 time.
East of the South Island, N/NE 10-20, building to 15-25.
SEAS: West of NZ, 2-4m. East of NZ 2-3m.
WEATHER: Unsettled west of NZ with scattered squalls. Some steady rain north of 42N, moving southeast with time. East of NZ, low cloud but generally fine.
* 40S to 55S from 180W to 160W *
WIND: Easing SW winds from 20-30 in the east to 10-15 in the west. Veering from SW to W to NW over time. Light and variable conditions near high pressure at 43N/174W.
SEAS: Decreasing seas. 4-6m at first, 2-4m late.
WEATHER: Weather improving from west to east. Some squalls likely in the east.
* 45S to 55S from 160W to 140W *
WIND: Areas of GALE FORCE around low pressure moving southeast. West of 150W, N 20-30 gusting 35 shifting to SW/S from west to east. SW/S winds 30-40, gusting 45-50. East of 150W, Mainly N tending NW and possibly SW late at 20-30, isolated 35 gusts.
SEAS: 4-7m.
WEATHER: Widespread rain and numerous strong squalls.
* 45S to 55S from 140W to 120W *
WIND: SW tending W. 10-20 near 45S, increasing to 25-35 gusting 40-45 at south of 50S.
SEAS: 2-4m near 45S, increasing to 4-6m south of 50S.
WEATHER: Fine north of 46S.
* 45S to 55S from 120W to 100W *
WIND: GALE Force. Mainly SW at 20-30 except 30-40 east of 110W. Easing and veering W with time.
SEAS: 5-8m, decreasing to 3-5m from west to east.
WEATHER: Scattered squalls in the east.
* 45S to 55S from 100W to 80W *
WIND: GALE to STORM FORCE. Strong N/NW shifting SW 40-50 gusting 60.
SEAS: Very rough 6-10m.
WEATHER; Numerous strong squalls.

*** TUESDAY (01-MAR-2011) ***
* 40S to 50S from 140E to 160E *
WIND: GALE to STORM FORCE. W/SW at 30-40 gusting 50.
SEAS: Building 5-9m.
WEATHER: Numerous strong squalls.
* 40S to 50S from 160E to 180E, including Cook Strait *
WIND: GALE to STORM FORCE. N/NNW 25-35 gusting 45 shifting to W/SW at 35-45 gusting 50-55.
Cook Strait, GALE to STORM FORCE NW/N 30-45 gusting 50.
West of New Zealand N building to 30-40 gusting 45-50.
SEAS: Confused seas west of NZ 5-8m. East of NZ, Building 3-6m.
WEATHER: Strong squalls east of NZ. Heavy rain along the NZ west coast. Squalls in Cook Strait. Developing rain and squalls of east of NZ.
* 40S to 55S from 180W to 160W *
WIND: West of 170W, N'ly winds increase to 20-30. East of 170W S'ly winds becoming light and variable from west to east.
SEAS: 2-4m in the east, building to 3-5m in the west.
WEATHER: Fine in the east. Some squalls developing in the west.
* 45S to 55S from 160W to 140W *
WIND: GALE FORCE. NW at 20-30 gusting 35 south of 50S. Shifting SW/S at 25-35 gusting 45 from west to east with time.
SEAS: 3-5m increasing to 4-7m
WEATHER: Strong squalls moving from southwest to northeast across the forecast area.
* 45S to 55S from 140W to 120W *
WIND: GALE FORCE. WNW at 20-30 at 45S increasing to 30-40 south of 50S.
SEAS: 2-4m near 45S, increasing to 4-6m south of 50S.
WEATHER: Squalls, especially south of 50S.
* 45S to 55S from 120W to 100W *
WIND: GALE Force. SW/W at 30-40 except 35-45 gusting 50 45S to 48S. Backing with time.
SEAS: Very rough at 5-8m.
WEATHER: Scattered squalls in the east.
* 45S to 55S from 100W to 80W *
WIND: GALE FORCE. NW at 20-30. Building from west to east. A late left shift western sections.
SEAS: Very rough 4-7m.
WEATHER; Scattered squalls. Strong squalls arrive from the west late in the period.
* CAPE HORN *
WIND: STORM FORCE. NW at 45-60.
SEAS: 6-10m.
WEATHER: Frequent strong squalls.

*** WEDNESDAY (02-MAR-2011) ***
OUTLOOK: Active storms along 55S from the Tasman sea to Cape horn will keep very strong and stormy W'lies active along most of the racing route. The lone exception will be a minor high pressure ridge around 160W which will offer a zone of lighter Winds from 45S to 55S. Also, high pressure moving across central NZ will make for light and variable conditions in Cook Strait.